IMD Mumbai Warns of Weaker Monsoon Rain in Late August and September
The India Meteorological Department has warned of below-normal rainfall across Mumbai and Maharashtra for the latter half of the monsoon season, as the El Nino weather phenomenon continues to impact seasonal patterns.
Bikram Singh, head scientist at the Regional Meteorological Centre in Mumbai, stated that rainfall is expected to weaken through late August and September following a subdued start to the monsoon in August. The weather department had earlier flagged the likelihood of reduced precipitation during this season under the influence of El Nino.
Singh detailed the rainfall trends observed across Mumbai and the wider Maharashtra region through July and the initial weeks of August, noting that the El Nino effect is projected to persist and influence precipitation levels from mid-August until the conclusion of the season in September.
Beyond rainfall projections, Singh outlined the framework behind the weather department's impact-based forecasting system. He explained that weather warnings, including yellow, orange, and red alerts, are formulated using multiple risk indicators rather than precipitation volume alone.
Factors such as rainfall intensity, existing soil saturation levels, and specific regional risks—including potential landslides, flooding, and urban waterlogging—play a central role in determining alert categories.
According to Singh, approximately 65 per cent of the decision to issue a specific alert is driven by the expected quantum of rainfall. However, the overarching purpose of the warning system is to facilitate proactive administrative preparedness and disaster mitigation measures across civic and state agencies.
Singh highlighted that extensive assessment goes into the alert process, stating that a lot of thought is involved before sounding a red, yellow, or orange warning across the region.
